Oleg Yanovsky, pengajar di Departemen Teori Politik, MGIMO (dok/ ist)
SMSNEWS.id | Moskow - Indonesia's population is young. 29.9 is the median age,[i] and 3.38 million university students.[ii] And Indonesia has a presidential election coming in February. Given the documents leaked to MintPressNews last week,[iii] we can predict who will be at the thrust of deciding the election outside the ballot box.
Student movements have traditionally been a politically powerful factor - when mobilised and organised.
From the anti-war protests that shifted US policy in Vietnam,[iv] to the social unrest in Hong Kong in 2019,[v] being young, energetic, and with low relative accountability make students the perfect spearhead in politics.
Recently documents have surfaced that the National Endowment for Democracy and a number of other US-linked entities may be planning a campaign to influence Indonesian government.[vi]
This is unsurprising given Indonesia's stalwart independence and strong leadership of ASEAN. The very popular President Jokowi stated that ASEAN cannot be a proxy of any country,[vii] the republic has not sanctioned Russia nor to join US groupings aimed against China. Recently the US found itself embarrassed as the Indonesian Defence Minister denied signing a joint declaration with his American colleague that Washington already published.[viii] In his statement, Prabowo said that the country values relationships with Russia and China.
A thorn in Western policy in the region, Indonesia showed that it cannot be cajoled via diplomacy or interstate pressure. Thus, it is increasingly likely that Western countries including Australia and the US will seek other means to achieve their ultimate goal - forcing Indonesia to drop its non-alignment policy. This means include mobilising Americanised young people, the economically disillusioned and students to cause social unrest. We've seen these strategies used to great effect in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and even recently with the astroturfing of the Move Forward Party in Thailand.[ix]
However the core population of Indonesia is unlikely to be fooled. Deep national identity and an understanding of national interest coupled with a spiritual connection to the rest of the Islamic World are bulwarks against a rash change in government. ISEAS State of Southeast Asia Survey shows that more than half of Indonesia support the government policy on Ukraine.[x]
Indeed Islam is a very important factor, as other countries of the faith including Saudi Arabia and of course Iran, have remained friendly or neutral towards Russia. Indonesia feels the Islamic connection towards Russia too. A famous Indonesian blogger, Rabbanians ID, even discussed how Russians are the Rum people, Christians who effectively align with Islam and can be considered spiritual brothers. The sentiment is so strong that western analysts including at the University of Melbourne have been busy writing essays on how Russia has manipulated Indonesia[xi] - when actually spiritual and tradition-orientated Indonesians were not influenced but think critically in a global context.
Indonesia's current foreign policy has served it very well so far. Jakarta solidified its leadership of the ASEAN. Thanks to strong relations with most major countries, trade is bustling. And the nation is transforming.
A sudden pro American shift now would be damaging to national development for the long term.
Education policy is key in maintaining Indonesian prosperity and stability. Islam should be reinforced, as should other national traditions. Memory of the National Revolution against the Dutch should also be further embedded into the education programme. Finally Indonesia's global wins, from leading ASEAN, to being a globally respected travel destination, to the current rapid economic development should be communicated at every level to younger audiences. Revolutionaries exploit feelings of desperation and despair. Indonesian youth have no reason to feel this way given their country's positive trajectory. So stability will be a question of whether the youth can be inspired or as left to fall into apathy.
As a university Lecturer, I think it's every educators core responsibility to inspire our students and broaden the horizons as to the rich opportunities they have in their countries. I hope my Indonesian colleagues agree!
Penulis: Tn. Oleg Yanovsky [Pengajar di Departemen Teori Politik, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)].
Editor: Billy
[i] https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/indonesia-population/#:~:text=Indonesia%20population%20is%20equivalent%20to,397%20people%20per%20mi2).&text=The%20median%20age%20in%20Indonesia%20is%2029.9%20years.
[ii] https://www.statista.com/statistics/704777/number-of-state-university-students-in-indonesia/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20around%203.38%20million,and%20Higher%20Education%20of%20Indonesia.
[iii] https://www.mintpressnews.com/leak-cia-ned-color-revolution-coup-indonesia/285617/
[iv] https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/us-history/postwarera/1960s-america/a/the-student-movement-and-the-antiwar-movement
[v] https://time.com/longform/hong-kong-portraits/
[vi] https://www.mintpressnews.com/leak-cia-ned-color-revolution-coup-indonesia/285617/
[vii] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230714-indonesian-president-warns-asean-can-t-be-proxy-of-any-country
[viii] https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/08/31/en-prabowo-tidak-ada-pernyataan-bersama-dengan-kementerian-pertahanan-as?open_from=Section_English
[ix] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1240540.shtml
[x] https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2023-survey-report-2/
[xi] https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/why-do-so-many-indonesians-back-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/